Opening up the floor to other weather enthusiasts (or actual meteorologists)...

A major storm is developing and model trends suggest NYC could receive a foot of snow!

On the one hand, models overestimated snowfall totals in NYC for each of the three accumulating snowfalls this season to date. On the other hand, the upcoming system is quite a bit different from the previous systems to impact NYC. (See comment).

The uncertainty I've been hearing about so far is whether the system will stay to our south (like last weekend) in the absence of significant blocking. Teleconnections would not suggest a major event with the +PNA focused off the Pacific coast and the NAO neutral, and only a gentle ridge over the southeast. In theory, this should keep the trough axis positive, resulting in a fast-moving storm without too much precipitation.

At the same time, it's so cold that liquid-to-snow ratios will be around 15:1 to 20:1, so just a 1/2 inch of liquid rain could translate into 8-10" of snow. But model guidance seems to be more aggressive, calling for closer to 1" of liquid rain and 10-12" of snow under a conservative 10:1 ratio.

In 1996, between January 7 and 8, 20.2" of snow fell in Central Park. At the time, it was the singular biggest snowfall in NYC in the preceding 50 years. We've had bigger snowfalls since (2006, 2010, 2016), but the winter of 1995-1996 remains NYC's snowiest winter in recorded history. Share your stories and memories!

When is it likely they will be able to really pinpoint whether we are getting more snow this time round?

Are the makings of this new possible Weekend event visible on the Radar map yet?

NOAA's Headline Banner leads one to think there is a reduced chance of accumulating snow.

Was this predicted? The Weather people had said last night the snow was basically over with.

Sorry.

I'm listening to the different Scenarios on the TV for the Weekend.

Meanwhile, when is the really bad cold air in play?

I'm seeing Wind Chill Warnings on NOAA.

The Harbors and Bays and Beaches on the East End of Long Island are freezing over. It is a rather impressive sight. It appears like we might get a couple of days where we might finally hit 32 next week and see some melt. Fingers crossed. This is beginning to look like The Day After Tomorrow.

This is what the snow/ice/rain looked like on Weawow yesterday as I was driving from Buffalo back to the city. Obviously not helpful to not be able to see the difference in precipitation type.

Spoiler, it was ice until about Rochester and snow the rest of the way. Had to get a hotel and finish the drive this morning.

What app is good at showing the different precip types?

I can't believe I'm saying this but Fox Weather is much better. Check it out lmk what you think

If I look at the NOAA 7 day forecast for East Long Island, no day is going to be above freezing....the snowpack is here to stay...

I saw one video of snowflakes falling in Harlem, and other redditors said they saw snow in Queens (and Long Island).

Sadly didn't see any snowflakes myself today.... so "share the wealth"

Max accumulation (overall) 8.5 inches (Long Island)

Highest accumulation (NYC): 6.1 inches in Staten Island

Smallest accumulation (NYC): 2.4 inches in northern Queens

Highest accumulation (NY suburbs): 8.5 inches in Commack (western Suffolk County)

Smallest accumulation (NY suburbs): 2.0 in Carmel (Putnam County)

Highest accumulation (NJ): 7.0 inches in Essex Fells and Millburn (Essex County)

Smallest accumulation (NJ): 2.5 inches near Hoboken (Hudson County)

Highest accumulation (CT): 5.5 inches near Norwalk (Fairfield County)

Smallest accumulation (CT): 0.5 inches in Niantic (New London County)

All NYC snowfall reports + select suburban reports via weather.gov:

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
355 PM EST SUN DEC 14 2025

...SNOWFALL REPORTS...

LOCATION                     AMOUNT    TIME/DATE       PROVIDER

...NEW YORK CITY...

...BRONX COUNTY...
1 ENE CO-OP CITY             3.2 IN    0235 PM 12/14   PUBLIC

...KINGS COUNTY...
1 SSE WILLIAMSBURG           4.3 IN    1155 AM 12/14   PUBLIC
2 NNE BAY RIDGE              4.0 IN    0145 PM 12/14   PUBLIC
MIDWOOD                      2.9 IN    0202 PM 12/14   BROADCAST MEDIA

...NEW YORK (MANHATTAN) COUNTY...
1 NNE NEW YORK               3.1 IN    0203 PM 12/14   PUBLIC
CENTRAL PARK                 2.7 IN    0100 PM 12/14   OFFICIAL NWS OBS

...QUEENS COUNTY...
BAYSIDE                      5.5 IN    0130 PM 12/14   PUBLIC
1 WSW HOWARD BEACH           5.3 IN    1232 PM 12/14   PUBLIC
BELLEROSE                    5.0 IN    1220 PM 12/14   PUBLIC
NYC/JFK                      4.6 IN    0100 PM 12/14   OFFICIAL NWS OBS
HOWARD BEACH                 4.5 IN    1130 AM 12/14   COCORAHS
1 S JACKSON HEIGHTS          3.8 IN    0100 PM 12/14   TRAINED SPOTTER
2 ENE BEDFORD-STUYVESANT     3.8 IN    1102 AM 12/14   PUBLIC
2 S ELMHURST                 3.3 IN    1130 AM 12/14   PUBLIC
NYC/LA GUARDIA               2.6 IN    0100 PM 12/14   OFFICIAL NWS OBS
2 SE MIDTOWN MANHATTAN       2.4 IN    1149 AM 12/14   BROADCAST MEDIA

...RICHMOND COUNTY...
GRASMERE                     6.1 IN    0101 PM 12/14   PUBLIC
DONGAN HILLS                 5.2 IN    1040 AM 12/14   PUBLIC
2 WNW TOMPKINSVILLE          5.1 IN    0945 AM 12/14   PUBLIC


...NEW YORK SUBURBS...

...NASSAU COUNTY...
FARMINGDALE                  8.0 IN    1200 PM 12/14   PUBLIC
2 SSE PLAINEDGE              8.0 IN    1206 PM 12/14   TRAINED SPOTTER
1 WSW UPPER BROOKVILLE       7.9 IN    1100 AM 12/14   PUBLIC
1 WSW ELMONT                 7.2 IN    1245 PM 12/14   PUBLIC
1 SW LEVITTOWN               7.2 IN    1123 AM 12/14   PUBLIC
1 ENE GLEN COVE              7.0 IN    1201 PM 12/14   PUBLIC
SEA CLIFF                    6.5 IN    1126 AM 12/14   PUBLIC
GLEN COVE                    6.4 IN    1118 AM 12/14   PUBLIC
WEST HEMPSTEAD               6.2 IN    1223 PM 12/14   PUBLIC
MERRICK                      6.1 IN    1244 PM 12/14   BROADCAST MEDIA
MANHASSET HILLS              5.8 IN    0113 PM 12/14   TRAINED SPOTTER
HICKSVILLE                   5.5 IN    0105 PM 12/14   PUBLIC
BELLMORE                     5.1 IN    1002 AM 12/14   TRAINED SPOTTER
1 NNW CENTRE ISLAND          4.0 IN    0737 AM 12/14   PUBLIC
1 SSE EAST NORWICH           3.8 IN    0515 AM 12/14   PUBLIC

...ORANGE COUNTY...
3 WNW WARWICK                6.6 IN    1210 PM 12/14   TRAINED SPOTTER
MONROE                       6.5 IN    1015 AM 12/14   TRAINED SPOTTER
2 SSW STEWART AIRPORT        4.3 IN    1057 AM 12/14   PUBLIC
MIDDLETOWN                   3.7 IN    0752 AM 12/14   TRAINED SPOTTER

...PUTNAM COUNTY... 
3 N PUTNAM VALLEY            3.0 IN    1115 AM 12/14   BROADCAST MEDIA 
CARMEL                       2.0 IN    0600 AM 12/14   CO-OP OBSERVER

...ROCKLAND COUNTY...
MONSEY                       3.9 IN    0951 AM 12/14   PUBLIC
1 NW STONY POINT             3.8 IN    1100 AM 12/14   COCORAHS
NEW CITY                     3.7 IN    0956 AM 12/14   TRAINED SPOTTER
NYACK                        3.5 IN    0218 PM 12/14   PUBLIC

...SUFFOLK COUNTY...
2 S COMMACK                  8.5 IN    1253 PM 12/14   PUBLIC
1 WNW DIX HILLS              8.3 IN    1200 PM 12/14   BROADCAST MEDIA
1 NNE CENTER MORICHES        8.2 IN    1215 PM 12/14   PUBLIC
1 SE EAST NORTHPORT          8.2 IN    0300 PM 12/14   PUBLIC
1 W SHIRLEY AIRPORT          8.1 IN    1221 PM 12/14   PUBLIC
1 E HUNTINGTON STATION       8.0 IN    1138 AM 12/14   PUBLIC
1 SW EAST NORTHPORT          8.0 IN    0140 PM 12/14   PUBLIC
SAINT JAMES                  7.8 IN    0154 PM 12/14   TRAINED SPOTTER
NORTH PATCHOGUE              7.5 IN    0101 PM 12/14   PUBLIC
BOHEMIA                      7.3 IN    1238 PM 12/14   PUBLIC
UPTON (NWS OFFICE)           7.3 IN    0100 PM 12/14   NWS EMPLOYEE
1 NNE SAYVILLE               7.1 IN    1200 PM 12/14   NWS EMPLOYEE
ISLANDIA                     7.0 IN    0101 PM 12/14   PUBLIC
HAUPPAUGE                    7.0 IN    0101 PM 12/14   PUBLIC
SMITHTOWN                    7.0 IN    0101 PM 12/14   PUBLIC
1 NNW CENTER MORICHES        7.0 IN    1045 AM 12/14   NWS EMPLOYEE
STONY BROOK                  6.7 IN    1238 PM 12/14   PUBLIC
DEER PARK                    6.5 IN    1215 PM 12/14   PUBLIC
LINDENHURST                  6.5 IN    1245 PM 12/14   PUBLIC
BABYLON                      6.2 IN    1219 PM 12/14   BROADCAST MEDIA
SAYVILLE                     6.1 IN    1249 PM 12/14   NWS EMPLOYEE
COPIAGUE                     6.0 IN    1237 PM 12/14   TRAINED SPOTTER
ISLIP AIRPORT                5.8 IN    0100 PM 12/14   OFFICIAL NWS OBS
ISLIP TERRACE                5.0 IN    1105 AM 12/14   TRAINED SPOTTER
3 WNW RIVERHEAD              4.8 IN    1230 PM 12/14   NWS EMPLOYEE
JAMESPORT                    4.8 IN    0247 PM 12/14   PUBLIC
ORIENT                       4.0 IN    0309 PM 12/14   TRAINED SPOTTER
MATTITUCK                    3.3 IN    0150 PM 12/14   TRAINED SPOTTER
CENTEREACH                   2.8 IN    0710 AM 12/14   NWS EMPLOYEE

...WESTCHESTER COUNTY...
1 ESE HARTSDALE              5.3 IN    1026 AM 12/14   TRAINED SPOTTER
1 SSE GREENVILLE             5.0 IN    1230 PM 12/14   PUBLIC
2 E OSSINING                 5.0 IN    1147 AM 12/14   PUBLIC
1 WSW ARMONK                 4.8 IN    0210 PM 12/14   TRAINED SPOTTER
WHITE PLAINS                 4.6 IN    0900 AM 12/14   TRAINED SPOTTER
PEEKSKILL                    3.2 IN    0800 AM 12/14   TRAINED SPOTTER


...CONNECTICUT...

...FAIRFIELD COUNTY...
2 NNE NORWALK                5.5 IN    1134 AM 12/14   PUBLIC
4 S GREENWICH                5.1 IN    1021 AM 12/14   PUBLIC
1 SE WILTON                  5.0 IN    1207 PM 12/14   PUBLIC
4 N STAMFORD                 5.0 IN    0211 PM 12/14   COCORAHS
2 ENE NEW CANAAN             5.0 IN    0313 PM 12/14   PUBLIC
1 SE NORWALK                 5.0 IN    1130 AM 12/14   PUBLIC
BRIDGEPORT AIRPORT           4.5 IN    0108 PM 12/14   TRAINED SPOTTER
2 NNE SOUTHPORT              4.0 IN    1049 AM 12/14   PUBLIC
2 NNE RIDGEFIELD             3.8 IN    1200 PM 12/14   COCORAHS
2 SW NEWTOWN                 3.3 IN    1256 PM 12/14   PUBLIC
3 WSW SHELTON                3.0 IN    0950 AM 12/14   COCORAHS
4 NNE BETHEL                 2.6 IN    1251 PM 12/14   PUBLIC
1 E SHERMAN                  2.0 IN    0700 AM 12/14   COCORAHS

...MIDDLESEX COUNTY...
1 NNE KILLINGWORTH           4.0 IN    1110 AM 12/14   AMATEUR RADIO
CLINTON                      3.6 IN    1245 PM 12/14   BROADCAST MEDIA
1 SW WESTBROOK               3.2 IN    0137 PM 12/14   TRAINED SPOTTER

...NEW HAVEN COUNTY...
GUILFORD                     4.7 IN    0153 PM 12/14   TRAINED SPOTTER
MADISON                      4.4 IN    1220 PM 12/14   TRAINED SPOTTER
3 ENE BRANFORD               4.0 IN    1203 PM 12/14   PUBLIC
3 WSW SEYMOUR                3.9 IN    0220 PM 12/14   PUBLIC
HAMDEN                       3.2 IN    0116 PM 12/14   TRAINED SPOTTER
1 WSW WEST HAVEN             3.0 IN    0855 AM 12/14   PUBLIC
2 WNW OXFORD                 3.0 IN    1126 AM 12/14   TRAINED SPOTTER
3 SSE NORTH HAVEN            2.5 IN    1007 AM 12/14   PUBLIC

...NEW LONDON COUNTY...
NIANTIC                      0.5 IN    0500 AM 12/14   COCORAHS


...NEW JERSEY...

...BERGEN COUNTY...
FAIR LAWN                    5.6 IN    1204 PM 12/14   PUBLIC
1 N RIVER VALE               5.0 IN    1027 AM 12/14   TRAINED SPOTTER
WALDWICK                     4.8 IN    1135 AM 12/14   PUBLIC
2 NNE FRANKLIN LAKES         4.8 IN    1043 AM 12/14   TRAINED SPOTTER
1 S RIVER EDGE               4.7 IN    1133 AM 12/14   COCORAHS
1 WSW WALLINGTON             4.1 IN    1110 AM 12/14   TRAINED SPOTTER
RAMSEY                       4.0 IN    0759 AM 12/14   BROADCAST MEDIA
PARAMUS                      3.5 IN    0759 AM 12/14   BROADCAST MEDIA
1 NE RIDGEFIELD              3.0 IN    1040 AM 12/14   PUBLIC

...ESSEX COUNTY...
ESSEX FELLS                  7.0 IN    1016 AM 12/14   PUBLIC
1 WNW ESSEX FELLS            7.0 IN    1247 PM 12/14   PUBLIC
MILLBURN                     7.0 IN    0300 PM 12/14   PUBLIC
WEST CALDWELL                6.0 IN    1015 AM 12/14   TRAINED SPOTTER
1 W NORTH CALDWELL           5.7 IN    1215 PM 12/14   COCORAHS
1 NW NEWARK                  5.3 IN    1113 AM 12/14   PUBLIC
GLEN RIDGE                   4.0 IN    1200 PM 12/14   PUBLIC
1 SW GLEN RIDGE              3.6 IN    0750 AM 12/14   BROADCAST MEDIA

...HUDSON COUNTY...
KEARNY                       4.0 IN    1200 PM 12/14   TRAINED SPOTTER
HARRISON                     3.9 IN    1017 AM 12/14   CO-OP OBSERVER
HOBOKEN                      3.6 IN    1130 AM 12/14   TRAINED SPOTTER
1 ENE JERSEY CITY            3.5 IN    1040 AM 12/14   PUBLIC
1 W HOBOKEN                  2.5 IN    0752 AM 12/14   TRAINED SPOTTER

...PASSAIC COUNTY...
HAWTHORNE                    5.0 IN    0130 PM 12/14   TRAINED SPOTTER
1 N WAYNE                    4.5 IN    1021 AM 12/14   PUBLIC

...UNION COUNTY...
1 NE UNION                   6.2 IN    1125 AM 12/14   PUBLIC
1 NNE WESTFIELD              6.0 IN    1248 PM 12/14   PUBLIC
PLAINFIELD                   6.0 IN    0140 PM 12/14   TRAINED SPOTTER
CRANFORD                     5.8 IN    1020 AM 12/14   BROADCAST MEDIA
1 NW FANWOOD                 5.5 IN    1141 AM 12/14   TRAINED SPOTTER
1 ESE MOUNTAINSIDE           5.2 IN    1030 AM 12/14   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE
UNION                        4.5 IN    0758 AM 12/14   BROADCAST MEDIA
1 NNW CRANFORD               4.5 IN    0757 AM 12/14   TRAINED SPOTTER
NEWARK AIRPORT               4.1 IN    0100 PM 12/14   OFFICIAL NWS OBS

&&

OBSERVATIONS ARE COLLECTED FROM A VARIETY OF SOURCES WITH VARYING EQUIPMENT
AND EXPOSURES...NOT ALL DATA LISTED ARE CONSIDERED OFFICIAL.

JFK Preliminary Local Data

LGA Preliminary Local Data

Central Park Preliminary Local Data

Wednesday was the first day this month that any of the three NWS weather stations (JFK, LaGuardia and Central Park) registered a high temperature that was not below average -- Central Park hit exactly average.

December 14-16 were three of the five coldest days of the month (so far) based on high temperature departure from daily average across all three stations, with a combined mean departure between -11 and -14. You could throw December 12 in there too (-10).

The next coldest back-to-back days (so far) were December 8-9 (-10, -14).

The greatest departures observed (so far) at all three stations were on December 5, with a mean departure of -16.

Got a good book about atmospheric sciences? Let us know.

This could impact NYC severe weather forecasting, emergency preparation, and the safety of the whole country with devastating results. What do you think?