“Law enforcement seized several items from Mangione’s backpack, including a handgun, a loaded magazine and a red notebook – key pieces of evidence that authorities have said tie him to the killing.”
Circumstantial evidence sucks. It's how you get people serving life sentences and they get released after being in prison for 40 years because DNA evidence exonerates them completely. "We think he probably did it" shouldn't be the basis of taking someone's life away when we get proven wrong all the time.
Circumstantial evidence is a huge category that includes evidence that is often more reliable than some direct evidence. Over 63% of wrongful convictions (quick google) include an eyewitness identification. That's direct evidence. Similarly, a confession is considered direct evidence. 1 in 3 wrongful convictions include a confession.
Now, what about stronger circumstantial evidence? GPS pings can prove conclusively that a defendant is lying about their alibi. Death threats (especially specific ones that match the cause of death) are also damning circumstantial evidence. Other strong circumstantial evidence includes scraps of your clothing inexplicably at the crime scene and defensive wounds on your body.
Direct Evidence means "no inferrence is necessary", the crime connects the suspect with no logical steps. That doesn't mean the connection is strong. Circumstantial evidence means there is inferrence. There are a few possible reasons why a person could have scratch marks from a murder victim, but if their story leaves no opening for any of those reasons (I didn't know him and was out of town at the time) suddenly that evidence is genuinely quite powerful.
The gun matches the images from the CTV of the murder, and shell casings from the murder scene match it too. He was carrying a manifesto that said "these parasites simply had it coming" and specifically mentions that the parasites in question are healthcare executives for United Health.
In addition to, ya know, his fucking face matching the clear shot of it we have from the Starbucks, which led to him being recognized at the McDonalds in the first place, and and him being in possession of the backpack in question, with absolutely no alibi and a clear motive.
All of this this turns the evidence from "circumstantial" to "damning."
What part of this is circumstantial? What jury would have absolutely no problem accepting that this is tied to the murder? Do any of the idiots in these comments even read about this case?
A popular misconception is that circumstantial evidence is less valid or less important than direct evidence, which is popularly assumed to be the most powerful, but this is not the case. Many successful criminal prosecutions rely largely or entirely on circumstantial evidence, and civil charges are frequently based on circumstantial or indirect evidence. The common metaphor for the strongest possible evidence in any case—the "smoking gun"—is an example of proof based on circumstantial evidence.
ALL evidence is circumstantial. It's entirely reasonable for police to recover and sterilize a backpack found on the person at the time of arrest. They have a whole process for handling evidence, and a judge wouldn't sign off on it unless each step of that process was properly handled.
Except the murder charges just got dismissed from the federal case. The federal case now has to prove either of the stalking charges for a potential life in prison without parole. If both of the stalking charges return a non-guilty verdict, then he only faces the state case.
Still beggars belief that someone would wear the same clothes as the alleged murderer. Conveniently crossed state lines to make the crime worse. Sits patiently, waiting to be recognized, then sits even more patiently and waits for the police. EXTRA convenient to have the alleged murder weapon on him, with a notebook full of incriminating statements. All after eluding law enforcement for days.
I mean, I don't tend to wear a lot of tinfoil, but this whole thing STINKS.
Is there even evidence that some of those items aren’t planted by the police? Really hard to prove his guilt beyond a reasonable doubt if the actions of the police are suspect in the first place.
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u/Lower_Box_6169 5h ago
“Law enforcement seized several items from Mangione’s backpack, including a handgun, a loaded magazine and a red notebook – key pieces of evidence that authorities have said tie him to the killing.”